1.
St Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, Quarterback, Oklahoma
The Rams have many needs and DT Ndamukong Suh would be the safe choice on paper. However the number one overall pick always comes down to money. Just like most teams before them they will undoubtedly try to trade this pick, but will find no suiters. Bradford’s accuracy and his ability to sell tickets will dominate this decision.
Other Possible Targets:
Jimmy Clausen, Quarterback, Notre Dame: If the Rams decide to go after a QB they will have to consider Clausen. His rocket arm and three years of experience in a pro style offense will be intriguing. However I think his cockiness and overall demeanor will allow the Rams to pass on him. Clausen could easily be the better pro, but it depends on his situation, and how he makes the most of it.
Ndamukong Suh, Defensive Tackle, Nebraska: The scariest part of scouting a player like Suh will not show up on the game tape, but on the stats that suggest that (thanks to this website http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftquarterbackriskmyth.php ) defensive tackles have a higher bust rate that quarterbacks. The numbers are close
2.
Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, Defensive Tackle, Nebraska
Suh has the ability to single handedly transform the Lions defense. His ability to stop the run and obtain tackles for loss would hide a lot of the Lions current weaknesses.
Other Possible Targets:
Russell Okung, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma State: Widely regarded as the best offensive tackle in this draft and the far safer pick for the Lions. I think this will be the the Lions toughest player to pass up. While the defense can use all the help it can get, the Lions also can not afford to miss on this pick. Okung would help keep Matthew Stafford upright and also open huge running lanes.
Gerald McCoy, Defensive Tackle, Oklahoma: Maybe the most versatile defensive player in this draft. Not only can he be used in a 3-4 or 4-3 defense, but you can also you use him at defensive tackle or as a lineman. If Suh is on the board and the Lions decide to go with defense he is the pick.
Trade Down: With it appearing likely that the Rams will take Bradford and the Redskins trading for McNabb the Lions only trade partner may be the Seahawks at number six. As speculated by several sources (Peter King, Profootballtalk.com etc) if the Lions sign DT Anthony Hargrove from the Saints an offensive tackle becomes the Lions focus. Hargrove had 44 tackles, 5 sacks for the Saints last year and is only 26
3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, Defensive Tackle, Oklahoma
This is a place where we could see a trade happen. The Redskins are clearly looking to obtain their franchise quarterback in this draft. However if Bradford and Clausen are still on the board look for another team to sneak into this spot before the Redskins. Assuming the Bucs stay in the top six after any trade I still think McCoy will be there for the taking. He fits their defensive system and has the ability to be a disruptive force from day one.
Other Possible Targets:
Eric Berry, Safety, Tennessee : Rated as the best safety prospect and would also be a difference maker for their defense from day one. Usually teams shy away from paying a safety top three money.
4.
Washington Redskins: Russell Okung, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma State
Coach Mike Shannahan likes over confident quarterbacks, see Elway, John and Cutler, Jay, and trading for McNabb allows the Redskins to improve their offensive line. The Redskins had one of the worst offensive lines last year and Okung could instantly stabilizes the left side. Other than the Rams selecting Bradford this seems like the second safest pick of the entire draft.
5.
Kansas City Chiefs: Anthony Davis, Offensive Tackle, Rutgers
Since the Chiefs got their franchise quarterback last season by trading for Matt Cassel and GM Scot Pioli knows the importance of building solid offensive and defensive lines Davis is the pick. Cassel was sacked over 40 times last season, some of the blame can be place on the QB, but the Chiefs O-line is one of the worst in the league.
Other Possible Targets: Eric Berry, Safety, Tennessee: Safety is another need for the Chiefs and Berry is the best in this draft. His ability to consistently disrupt teams passing games would instantly make the Chiefs secondary better.
Trade Down: Offensive tackle is their main priority with their first pick. Ideally they would try to move to at least the 10th slot and take offensive tackle Bruce Campbell from Maryland or hope Anthony Davis is still on the board. Unless a team falls in love with Jimmy Clausen, the Chiefs are stuck with this pick.
6.
Seattle Seahawks: Eric Berry, Safety, Tennessee
With Bradford off the board and the Seahawks trading for Charlie Whitehurst this makes this pick an easy one for new head coach Pete Carroll. At USC he had the luxury of his defenses being led by game changing safeties like Troy Polamalu or Taylor Mays. Although Mays is available in this draft Berry rates higher.
Other Possible Targets:
Offensive Lineman: If the Chiefs select Berry or an offensive tackle the Seahawks may also deem offensive tackle a more glaring need.
7.
Cleveland Browns: Joe Haden, Cornerback, Florida
The Browns need talent, when your kick returner, Joshua Cribbs, is the most talented player on your team you have a problem. Since the top quarterbacks are off the board the Browns will look to find a playmaker. Since running back Jerome Harrison finished the season strong and they traded away Braylon Edwards during the season wide receiver makes the most sense here. However the Browns need as close to a sure thing as they can get and cannot afford to take a risk here. Haden has shown the ability to be a shutdown corner during his three years at Florida. Although he posted slow .40 times at the combine the Browns will trust his game day speed.
Other Possible Targets:
Dez Bryant, Wide Receiever, Oklahoma State: Do to NCAA sancations Bryant missed the entire season, however his 6′ 2″ frame and dominate production when he did play will be enticing, especially since the Browns traded away Braylon Edwards last season and are still looking for his replacement.
8.
Oakland Raiders: Taylor Mays, Safety, USC
Mays was considered by many to be a top five pick in last years draft. He instead chose to return for his senior season, a decision many considered to be a mistake. Mays struggled his senior year along with USC’s defense, clearly missing the linebacker trio of Brian Cushing, Rey Maualuga, and Clay Matthews. Mays turned in a solid work out at the combine and will rely on his body of work at USC over his senior season. The Raiders are known for taking chances in the draft and will hope this year they guess correctly.
Other Possible Targets:
Bryan Bulaga, Offensive Tackle, Iowa or Trent Williams, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma: Both solid options to improve the Raiders offense, but neither seeming worthy of a top ten pick.
9.
Buffalo Bills: Bryan Bulaga, Offensive Tackle, Iowa
The Bills offensive line struggled to give their quarterbacks time or open up running lanes for their running backs. Bulaga is rated as one of the top five lineman and best suited for left tackle. I would add more but, at the end of the day Buffalo is a boring franchise and so are offensive lineman, plus he fills a need, jack pot.
10.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jimmy Clausen, Quarterback, Notre Dame
Weeks ago it seemed Clausen was destined to be headed to the Redskins, since they traded for their quarterback it would seem Clausen will drop to the Jaguars. Jaguars are in desperate need of adding a player to put along side running back Maurice Jones-Drew to sell tickets and improve their offensive arsenal. Clausen’s strong arm, confidence and experience running a pro offense make him a solid selection. Since the Jags have David Garrard they will not need to be forced to start Clausen
Other Possible Targets:
Derrick Morgan, Defensive End, Georgia Tech: Morgan was voted the ACC defensive player of the year and could make a lot of noise on the defensive side of the ball. His motor has been questioned at times, but he is the safe pick here.
Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama: Rated as the best linebacker in the draft McClain would bring leadership and talent to the Jaguars defense.
Wide Receiever: Golden Tate from Notre Dame, or Dez Bryant from Oklahoma State may also be seriously considered for their play making ability. This team is looking to bring excitement to their team to entice fans to actually consider coming to their games. Although they have a Tim Tebow boner, fans and ownership alike, this is way too early for him.
11.
Denver Broncos: Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
Denver’s defense went flat after a fast start. Adding McClain would bring a young leader who made numerous big plays for the Alabama. He instincts and nose for the ball would take pressure off of Kyle Orton and the Broncos offense.
Other Possible Targets:
If they find a team that is willing to surrender a first round pick for Brandon Marshall I would expect Denver to target Dez Bryant or Golden Tate with this pick.
12.
Miami Dolphins: Dez Bryant, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma State
Dolphins offensive attack lived and died by the wildcat formation. By adding Bryant quarterback Chad Henne could spread the field and make their offense even more unpredictable.
Other Possible Target:
Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama: Linebacker is another need for the dolphins and if he is one the board and Bryant is gone the Dolphins would have no complaints taking McClain.
13.
San Francisco 49ers: Carlos Dunlap, Defensive End, Florida
While Dunlap has had his share of off the field issues he is an explosive player than Coach Mike Singletary would love see brining pressure to the quarterback. With two picks in the top 17 I would assume they would grab the highest rated player here and then look for an offensive lineman with the next pick. Dunlap is rated as one of the top DE’s in this draft and his side and speed would make him a force in the NFC West.
Other Possible Targets:
Earl Thomas, Cornerback, Texas or Everson Griffen, Defensive End, USC: Both players would also help improve the 49ers defense as they attempt to challenge the Cardinals for the division, however I see Dunlap making a more immediate impact.
14.
Seattle Seahawks: C.J Spiller, Running Back, Clemson
Coach Pete Carroll loves playmakers, after watching film on C.J Spiller his speed, hands, and blocking ability will instantly remind him of Reggie Bush. Drafting impact players on both sides of the ball will go a long way to making Pete Carolls transition back to the pros an easier one.
Other Possible Targets:
Trent Williams, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma: The Seahawks are also need to begin rebuilding their aging offensive line. Williams would be solid value here, but I think the opportunity to pass on a player like Spiller is too great of a risk.
15.
New York Giants: Everson Griffen, Defensive End, USC
The Giants defense took a major step backwards last season, repairing it with new blood will be key to their offseason. Griffen would draw create match up problems for teams having to decide which player to double team him or veteran Osi Umenyiora.
16.
Tennessee Titans: Earl Thomas, Cornerback, Texas
This may be a reach for Thomas, but he is rated as the second best cornerback in this draft and its a huge need for the Titans defense. Last season they found there defense having a hard time getting off the field do to poor corner play from CB Nick Harper.
Other Possible Targets:
If the Titans decide this is too soon for Thomas and cornerback Joe Haden is also gone I would assume the Titans would look to add a solid defensive player like defensive tackle Dan Williams from Tennessee or outside linebacker Sergio Kindle from Texas to replace the departure of Kevin Bullocks.
17.
San Francisco 49ers: Trent Williams, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma
As previously mentioned the 49ers need to shore up their offensive line. Williams size and power will keep pressure off of quarterback Alex Smith and open up holes for running back Frank Gore.
Other Possible Target:
Anthony Davis, Offensive Tackle, Rutgers: Both players are similar and the 49ers would be happy to have either player. I flipped a coin and Williams won, while this seems ridiculous based on the way some of these teams draft I did not consider this idea to be that far fetched.
18.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Bruce Campbell, Offensive Tackle, Maryland
Offensive line help is by far the Steelers most glaring need. If Campbell lasts this long they will be ecstatic to add a player of his caliber to their diminished line. The Steelers will use the remainder of their draft to add much needed depth to their defense as injuries probably cost this team a playoff spot last year.
19.
Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Graham, Defensive End, University of Michigan
The Falcons could look to upgrade their offensive line, but I feel they will not be able to pass on Graham’s ability to improve their defense. As a Spartan it pains me to say that Graham may be one of the best defensive playmakers in the entire draft, a player the Falcons should not pass on.
20.
Houston Texans: Kyle Wilson, Cornerback, Boise State
Similar to the Titans the Titans defense had trouble getting off the field do to poor cornerback play. The Titans may try to trade down in hopes of gaining picks and Wilson still being available, but his ball hawking skills and speed allow him to match up nicely with any wide receiver.
21.
Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Greshman, Tight End, Oklahoma
The Bengals will jump at the opportunity to add Gresham to Carson Palmers arsenal of weapons. The offense came up small in too many games, Gresham will be a huge target in the middle of the field and allow WR Chad Ocho Cinco the opportunity to stretch the field.
Other Possible Target:
Offensive line help
22.
New England Patriots: Brandon Spikes, Linebacker, Florida
Coach Bill Belichick’s defense is in need of a defensive player maker and drafting Spikes would bring the leadership and intensity Belichick loves. The Patriots may consider a running back here, but I assume they will address that need in round two.
Other Possible Target:
Jared Odrick, Defensive End/Tackle, Penn State: Odrick would help this team replace trading Richard Seymour, however I think the Patriots will prefer Brandon Graham’s attitude and skill set over Odrick if he some how slips to them here.
23.
Green Bay Packers: Jared Odrick, Defensive End/Tackle, Penn State
The Packers defense started off strong and finished weak. Odrick would supply the Packers with versatility and the ability to consistently pressure the quarterback and plug up running lanes. Addressing an aging offensive line also must be a consideration with this pick, but I don’t think the Packers will pass on this special talent.
24.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jason Pierre-Paul, Defensive End, South Florida
Pierre-Paul has been inconsistent during his stay at South Florida, but has the promise to be a solid, if not great player. The Eagles may also consider drafting help for the offensive line depending who is on the board.
25.
Baltimore Ravens: Patrick Robinson, Cornerback, Florida State
Has all of the tools to be a physical corner and the speed to match. After signing receivers Donte Stalworth and trading for Anquan Boldin the Ravens can and should focus on improving their secondary.
Other Possible Target:
Jermaine Gresham, Tight End, Oklahoma: If he drops to this point the Ravens should not hesitate to grab him. Veteran Todd Heap has show signs of slowing down the past few seasons and a replacement is needed.
26.
Arizona Cardinals: Jerry Hughes, Defensive End, Texas Christian
Before signing free agent Joey Porter linebacker seemed like the most glaring need for the Cardinals. It now would appear that the Cardinals will have quite a few options with this pick, but I say they turn their focus to their pass rush. Hughes has a strong motor and has the ability to be a disruptive force for the Cardinals.
Other Possible Targets:
Jimmy Clausen, Quarterback, Notre Dame: If he some how slipped this far the Cardinals may be forced to consider him. However, I assume they will consider more pressing needs.
Tim Tebow, Quarterback, Florida: I think any team taking him in the 1st round would be a reach, but it sounds more and more likely that some team will take him with a late 1st round pick. If the Cardinals do not feel comfortable with Leinart and Clausen is off the bored the Cardinals could easily fall for Tebow’s intangibles.
Sean Witherspoon, Inside Linebacker, Missouri: Witherspoon could also fill the gap being left by Dansby, although he has not received the same fan far his stats, size and speed match up with Spikes’. If the Cardinals have issues with Spikes on and off the field issues Witherspoon is their guy,
27.
Dallas Cowboys: Brian Price, Defensive Tackle, UCLA
Kind of a streaky player, but when surrounded by a veteran team of play makers maybe he will become more consistently dominant. I think they are in position to take the best player available for the offensive or defensive lines.
Other Possible Targets: Trade down, unless someone slides to them here
28.
San Diego Chargers: Ryan Mathews, Running Back, Fresno State
After releasing LaDainian Tomlinson and letting Darren Sproiles test free agency running back has become an overwhelming need. Mathews stands as the highest rated running back on the board and could bring a consistent home run threat to the Chargers offense. Having the ability to use play action and have a down field receiver will make life much easier for quarterback Phillip Rivers.
Other Possible Targets:
Jahvid Best, Running Back, California and Jonathon Dwyer, Running Back, Georgia Tech
29.
New York Jets: Golden Tate, Wide Receiver, Notre Dame
Jets are desperate to add more weapons around young quarterback Mark Sanchez and Tate should be their guy. Tate displayed big play capability for the Irish and should provide an impact immediately. The Jets get lucky that the Ravens addressed their WR needs via trade and free agency which would allow Tate to fall to them here.
Other Possible Targets:
Arrelious Benn, Wide Receiver, Illinois: Solid Wide Receiver as well
30.
Minnesota Vikings: Dan Williams, Defensive Tackle, Tennessee
Intelligent player who has strength and motor to contribute as a rookie. Eventually Kevin and/or Pat Williams will retire, it would be wise for the Vikings to start looking for one of their replacements at this spot. Yes, I picked him because he his last name is Williams and plays defensive end, weird fetish for the Vikings apparently.
Other Possible Targets:
Use this pick in a trade to sweeten the pot for a quarterback if necessary, my guess is they won’t have answer from their wavering prima donna QB by the draft.
Tim Tebow, Quarterback, Florida: Once again, too early and would not fit the Vikings scheme, but I could see the Vikings being interested in Tebow. However the Vikings are in win now mode and I would assume they will not pick a project like Tebow, but stranger things have happened.
31.
Indianapolis Colts: Perrish Cox, Cornerback/Safety, Oklahoma State
I’m not sure this will be their guy, but secondary help and depth is the colts biggest weakness.
Other Possible Target:
Donovan Warren, Cornerback, Michigan
32.
New Orleans Saints: Devin McCourty, Cornerback, Rutgers
Late rising cornerback who may intrigue the Saints with his speed enough to take him here. Hard to say with this pick, the Saints have so many free agents and its too early to tell who they will lose or bring back.